World Desk

Brazil is hosting a two-day summit of the BRICS bloc of developing economies, where topics like Israel’s attack on Iran, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are expected to be addressed cautiously.

Analysts say the lack of unity within the expanded BRICS, which doubled its membership last year, could limit its ability to emerge as a powerful alternative in global affairs. They also believe the summit’s moderate agenda reflects an effort to avoid drawing unwanted attention from Trump’s administration.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has placed issues such as artificial intelligence and climate change at the center of the summit, though several key leaders are absent.

In his opening speech on Sunday, Lula warned, “We are witnessing the unparalleled collapse of multilateralism,” adding that the meeting is taking place “in the most adverse global scenario” of all four times Brazil has hosted the summit. He called on BRICS nations to promote peace and mediate conflicts.

“If international governance does not reflect the new multipolar reality of the 21st century, it is up to the BRICS to contribute to its renovation,” Lula said.

Notably absent from the summit is China’s President Xi Jinping, marking the first BRICS summit he has missed since taking power in 2012. Russian President Vladimir Putin is also absent but will join via videoconference, avoiding travel due to an international arrest warrant related to the invasion of Ukraine. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and Egypt’s Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi are also missing from the gathering in Rio de Janeiro.

Three joint statements expected

This year’s restrained approach marks a sharp contrast with last year’s summit in Kazan, Russia, where the Kremlin pushed to develop alternatives to U.S.-dominated financial systems to bypass Western sanctions following the Ukraine invasion.

A source familiar with the summit’s negotiations said some members are pushing for stronger language regarding Gaza and Israel’s attack on Iran. The source requested anonymity as they were not authorized to discuss the talks publicly.

“Brazil wants to keep the summit as technical as possible,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation think tank.

Observers now expect only a vague final declaration on Russia’s war in Ukraine and other Middle East conflicts. According to Stuenkel, the absence of Putin and Xi, who have advocated for a stronger anti-Western stance, makes it easier for Brazil and India to steer the summit toward non-alignment.

A Brazilian government official told The Associated Press that the summit is expected to produce three joint statements and a final declaration, “all of which less bounded by current geopolitical tensions.” The official spoke anonymously as they were not authorized to speak publicly.

João Alfredo Nyegray, a geopolitics professor at the Pontifical Catholic University in Parana, noted that the BRICS summit could have presented an alternative to global instability but is unlikely to do so.

“The withdrawal of Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the uncertainty about representation from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE confirm the difficulty for the BRICS to establish themselves as a cohesive global leadership pole,” Nyegray said. “This moment demands high-level articulation, but we are actually seeing dispersion.”

Avoiding Trump’s tariffs

Brazil, which currently chairs the bloc, has set six strategic priorities: global healthcare cooperation; trade, investment, and finance; climate change; governance for artificial intelligence; peace and security; and institutional development.

The country has opted to focus on less controversial areas, such as strengthening trade and health cooperation, especially after Trump’s return to the White House, said Ana Garcia, a professor at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro.

“Brazil wants the least amount of damage possible and to avoid drawing the attention of the Trump administration to prevent any type of risk to the Brazilian economy,” Garcia explained.

While Lula on Sunday called for reforming Western-led global institutions, a central policy for the bloc, Brazil is eager to avoid becoming a target for Trump’s tariffs — a situation it has so far mostly avoided. Trump has warned he would impose 100% tariffs against the bloc if it takes steps to undermine the U.S. dollar.

‘Best opportunity for emerging countries’

Founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the BRICS group expanded last year to include Indonesia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. The bloc also created a new category for 10 “strategic partner” countries, including Belarus, Cuba, and Vietnam.

With this rapid expansion, Brazil has placed institutional development on the summit agenda to better integrate new members and improve cohesion.

Despite the absence of key leaders, the summit remains important for emerging economies, especially amid the instability fueled by Trump’s tariff policies, said Bruce Scheidl, a researcher at the University of São Paulo’s BRICS study group.

“The summit offers the best opportunity for emerging countries to respond, in the sense of seeking alternatives and diversifying their economic partnerships,” Scheidl said.

For Lula, the summit provides a temporary respite from domestic political challenges, including falling approval ratings and clashes with Congress.

It also gives Brazil the opportunity to advance climate negotiations ahead of COP 30, the United Nations climate conference scheduled for November in Belém, in the heart of the Amazon.