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Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) on Sunday said the national budget for FY2026-27 reflects a clear philosophy of economic recovery through human development but its ambitious macroeconomic targets rest on shaky ground and the fiscal framework is unlikely to hold as proposed.

CPD Executive Director Dr Fahmida Khatun presented the think tank's Independent Review of Bangladesh's Development (IRBD) analysis at its Budget Dialogue 2026 at a city hotel in Gulshan.

The think tank put forward eight key observations on the FY27 budget, which Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury presented to parliament on June 11.

CPD noted that the government's GDP growth target of 6.5% represents a recovery claim from an estimated 5.0% in the revised FY26 budget, but Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) provisional data puts actual FY26 growth at only 4.14%.

On revenue mobilisation, CPD flagged that the government targets an 18.2% growth in revenue collection, reaching Tk 6,95,000 crore, but its own projection based on data through March 2026 suggests actual FY26 collection may be only around Tk 4,50,000 crore, implying the real growth target required is closer to 54.4%.

The think tank welcomed the budget's reprioritisation of public expenditure toward human capital sectors, noting that health allocation surged 124% and education rose 42.7% compared to the revised FY26 budget.

However, it cautioned that both sectors suffer from persistently weak budget utilisation, with health development spending utilisation collapsing from 80% in FY15 to just 30% in FY25.

On the Annual Development Programme (ADP), CPD said the Tk 3,00,000 crore ADP allocation, a 50% jump over the revised FY26 figure, reflects an ambitious fiscal stance, but only 35.4% of last year's ADP was spent in the first ten months, signalling low absorptive capacity.

It also noted that none of the eight mega projects due for completion in FY27, including the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, are expected to finish on time.

CPD raised equity concerns over personal income tax structure, pointing out that lower-income groups face a proportionally higher tax burden increase than those earning above BDT 30 lakh annually.

On social protection, the Social Safety Net Programme(SSNP) allocation rose 13.9% to Tk 1,44,000 crore in FY27, but CPD observed that pension management and agriculture subsidy together absorb 43.2% of the total SSNP budget, programmes not strictly targeted at the poor.

Regarding the government's pledge to create one crore new jobs within 18 months, CPD found budget allocations across four key employment ministries either declining or stagnant as a share of total expenditure.

The Ministry of Commerce saw the sharpest cut, with allocation slashed from Tk 909 crore to Tk 329 crore.

CPD also flagged the absence of a medium-term roadmap to address preference erosion ahead of Bangladesh's LDC graduation, despite the government formally requesting a three-year deferral in February 2026.

“This budget is the first major opportunity for the new government to demonstrate its ability to drive economic recovery through sustained structural reforms,” Fahmida Khatun said, adding that its success will ultimately depend on the quality of execution and the strength of institutional capacity to deliver.